J Alex Baecher | Alex Baecher

Species range shifts often speed ahead of their modeled climatic niches

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Expert elicitation of key invasive species habitat requirements, prevalence, and life history attributes

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Primary project outputs *Expert evaluation of the invasive species potential in the Southeast United States. * We aim to conduct two workshops leveraging the best academic, management, and legislative knowledge from across the Southeast USA. Workshop one will focus on species occurrences and assessments of traits that will enable robust modelling approaches. Workshop two will focus on management approaches to combat the most deleterious findings across all of the focal species. Both workshops will work iteratively with stakeholders to ensure that findings are both grounded in up to date information, as well as model findings reflect changing invasion realities.

*Pet trade and its impacts on invasive species release and propagation * We assessed diversity in the exotic pet trade throughout the lower 48 states by evaluating three major routes to market - online pet stores, traditional brick & mortar stores, and exotic pet expos. We assessed a species risk to native systems by assessing climatic niche overlap between native and invasive ranges. Composite mapping of niche suitability, as well as high levels of progaule likelihood provide us with ways of determining high risk areas. Assessments of the trade in this manner provide the most complete analysis of the exotic pet trade in the US to date.

Predicting the spread of Burmese pythons in south Florida: a proof-of-concept to apply to high-risk invasive species identified by experts We modelled the invasion dynamics of Burmese pythons using species’ thermal physiology, behaviour, and ecology, as well as landscape characteristics and management activities. In doing so, we have created a novel workflow which incorporates propagule pressure and other often ignored ecological processes.This workflow integrates data from disparate sources (i.e., citizen science, remote sensing, peer reviewed literature, state and federal agencies, and widely-available/open data) and leverages cutting-edge modelling tools, including both mechanistic and correlative models. The goal of this work is to create a predictive model, capable of estimating spatiotemporal patterns of species migrations, dynamic connectivity, and demographic processes such as survival and mortality. This workflow will be applied to several high priority invasive species, those identified by expert elicitation, in the SE USA.

Sub-projects/Tertiary Projects

*Assessing the dynamics of the exotic pet trade. How do volume, cost and rarity impact a species prevalence in the trade? * We assess how the diversity and abundance of species in the trade reflect nuances within the exotic pet trade. In turn we determine the implications of this on how new and emerging species penetrate the market and where new species are likely to get into the hands of inexperienced hobbyists. By characterizing the trade in this manner we can find where the intersection of availability, cost, and invasive potential lead to the highest risk species in the market.

Impact climate change and invasive Cuban treefrogs on native treefrog communities in Florida Arboreal amphibians are thought to use vertical gradients to mitigate exposure and seasonal changes to resource availability. However, novel biotic interactions from introduced species may disrupt these seasonal migrations, potentially limiting native species’ abilities to cope with environmental changes. Using experimental vertical enclosures designed to emulate vertical forest gradients, we manipulated water resources and conducted behavioural assays with two native treefrog species and one predatory invader species, the Cuban treefrog. Results from this experiment determined that Cuban treefrogs disrupted native species’ ability to track water resources, resulting in avoidance behaviour and potential subsequent dehydration.

Modelling global connectivity of wildlife populations To understand how climate and land use change will affect global patterns of biodiversity, we are developing global maps of major wildlife migration corridors, barriers to species’ movement, and hotspots for biodiversity redistribution. To improve on previous efforts, we consider the effects of both novel climate and habitat types for species movements. Using this information, we can then assess what proportion of expected species’ range shifts will be affected by landscape connectivity, and where those failed shifts will occur.

Species redistribution and connectivity (Intro)

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Description: This 1-day workshop will distill the basic principles of connectivity modeling and its relevance to predicting movement and species redistribution with environmental change. Participants will be introduced to connectivity as well as a new framework utilizing spatial-absorbing Markov chains (SAMC), which helps unify other approaches. Along the way, we will discuss how connectivity is relevant to core principles of species ranges and redistribution. We will also discuss the common problems, assumptions, and oversights occurring in published predictions of species range redistribution.

Topics: Background and motivation

Connectivity and species on the move
The state of connectivity modeling
R activity —introduction to connectivity using R

Markov chains, connectivity, and the SAMC framework

An introduction to the SAMC and the samc package
Relationships of SAMC with other connectivity frameworks
R activity—contrasting the SAMC and circuit theory

Building connectivity models with the SAMC

Building and tuning a SAMC model
What kinds data are needed?
R activity—Burmese python spread and potential corridors
Modeling dispersal kernels with the SAMC
R activity—kernels with black bears
Spatial networks and the SAMC
R activity—graph example with snail kites
Discussion: how to build your own models

Emerging topics

Movement ecology, movement trajectories, and the SAMC
Dynamic models for connectivity and species redistribution
Scaling models to large regions
Discussion of applications, facilitating use, etc.

Predicting the spread of invasive Burmese pythons in South Florida

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Integrating multi-scale data with hybrid ecological models to evaluate the role of management, climate, and habitat

Linking hosts, landscapes, and climate to advance zoonotic arbovirus forecasting

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Toward ecological forecasting of West Nile virus in Florida: Insights from two decades of sentinel chicken surveillance

Tue, 09 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Invasion risk posed by the pet trade

Sun, 08 Dec 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The environmental filtering paradigm and non-filtering community assembly processes

Thu, 04 Jul 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Proximal microclimate: Moving beyond spatiotemporalresolution improves ecological predictions

Wed, 26 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Mechanisms, detection and impacts of species redistribution under climate change

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Publication metrics:

Bringing traits back into the equation, A roadmap to understand species redistribution

Sat, 13 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Expanding the scope of connectivity modeling with Markov chains: perspectives and applications in R

Tue, 19 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Informing Species Range-shifts with (preliminary) Global Connectivity

Wed, 17 May 2023 13:00:00 +0000

Experimental evaluation of how biological invasions and climate change interact to alter the vertical assembly of an amphibian community

Sun, 05 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Towards Global Connectivity, applications for BIOSHIFTS

Thu, 17 Nov 2022 13:00:00 +0000

Modeling global ecological connectivity using biologically relevant data to understand expected patterns of species range shifts

Vertical stratification patterns of tropical forest vertebrates

Thu, 08 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Large, old trees define the vertical, horizontal, and seasonal distributions of a poison frog

Thu, 03 Feb 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Achieving connectivity under rapid change: case studies from niches to distributions

Fri, 22 Oct 2021 13:00:00 +0000

University of Florida, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation

* Guest Lecturer (Spr. '20): [Landscape Connectivity](https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1y8CO9LewVxIXlNU4HLHaNy2BVw_rDE1y)

Modeling spread of invasive Burmese pythons, integrating thermoregulation, behavior, and mortality

Fri, 22 Oct 2021 13:00:00 +0000

Integrating multi-scale data with hybrid ecological models to evaluate the role of management, climate, and habitat

Restoration Ecology of Grassland Herpetofauna in SEUSA

Fri, 22 Oct 2021 13:00:00 +0000

University of Florida, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation

* Guest Lecturer (Spr. '20): [Grassland Anurans](https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1lpI3-PvoozaRexnpNn1i_Bzp4lg6ogqW)

Salamander conservation in the Southeastern USA

Fri, 22 Oct 2021 13:00:00 +0000

University of Florida, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation

* Guest Lecturer (Spr. '20): [Salamander Ecology](https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1jsUhEewx3OWyfGIZvX3fCAWCGYeYyffM)

Prey Size and Feeding Rate Do Not Influence Trophic Morphology of Juvenile Water Snakes (Nerodia sipedon)

Wed, 04 Mar 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Tail bifurcation in two species of Desmognathus salamander (Plethodontidae) in southeastern Kentucky, USA

Sun, 01 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Cryopreservation and hormonal induction of spermic urine in smooth-sided toads

Thu, 01 Aug 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Environmental gradients in old‐growth Appalachian forest predict fine‐scale distribution, co‐occurrence, and density of woodland salamanders

Tue, 04 Dec 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Herpetofaunal Communities in Restored and Unrestored Remnant Tallgrass Prairie and Associated Wetlands in Northwest Arkansas, USA

Sun, 18 Nov 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Lithobates areolatus (crawfish frog) predation

Wed, 08 Oct 2014 00:00:00 +0000

J Alex Baecher

Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000

About Me

Serious bits:

I'm an interdisciplinary quantitative ecologist dedicated to understanding the processes that determine the distribution of biodiversity in space and time. My research interests include:

macroecology
biogeography
population ecology
conservation
spatiotemporal modeling
herp natural history
transparent science

Good bits:

I'm an Arkansas native (Ozark Mountains) based out of Gainesville Florida, a stereotypical girl dad (twice-over), proud union member, and lover of:

herping
hiking
canoeing
biking
home DIY projects
wood working
history podcasts

J Alex Baecher

Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000

About Me:

Serious bits:

I'm an applied interdisciplinary quantitative ecologist broadly interested in the processes that produce and maintain biodiversity. My research interests include:

  - macroecology
  - biogeography
  - population ecology
  - conservation
  - spatiotemporal modeling
  - herpetology
  - transparent science

Good bits:

I'm an native Arkansan (Ozark Mountains), a stereotypical girl dad (twice-over), proud union member, and lover of:

  - herping
  - hiking
  - canoeing
  - biking
  - home DIY projects
  - wood working
  - history podcasts

Download my CV⬇ (updated 5/7/2026)